44. A trader in India anticipates an increase in international gold prices from USD 1500 per ounce to USD 1800 in the next six months. To capitalize on this view, the trader buys 30 grams of gold at Rs. 22,000 per gram. Additionally, the trader sells a 6-month USDINR futures contract at a rate of 46. After six months, gold prices rise to USD 1800 per ounce, and the trader sells gold at Rs. 24,000 per gram. Simultaneously, the trader unwinds the currency futures contract at a rate of 44. Assuming 1 ounce is equal to 3 grams, determine the number of lots of currency futures used to hedge the currency risk and calculate the real return for the investor.
Explanation:
Part 1 – 3 grams = 1 ounce
30 grams = 10 ounce
So he has to hedge 10 ounce worth of USD = 1500 x 10 = 15000 USD.
One lot is of 1000 USD, So he has to sell 15 lots.
Part 2 : He bought 30 grams gold at Rs 22,000 per gram and sold at Rs 24,000
So the profit is 2000 X 30 = Rs 60000
He also makes a profit in futures where he sell 15 lots at 46 and buys them back at 44.
So Rs 2 profit x 15 lots X 1000 lot size = Rs 30000
Total profit Rs 60000 + Rs 30,000 = Rs 90,000
His investments was 30 grams gold at Rs 22000 per gram = Rs. 6,60,000
So on investment of Rs 660000 he has made a profit of Rs 90,000
So his profit rate of return is 90,000 x 100 / 660000 = 13.6 %